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Table 1 Comparison of three backcasting methodologies and their key assumptions

From: A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning

Robinson’s Methodology

TNS Methodology

STD Methodology

Methodological steps

1. Determine objectives

2. Specify goals, constraints, and targets, and describe present system and specify exogenous variables

3. Describe present system and its material flows

4. Specify exogenous variables and inputs

5. Undertake scenario construction using the specified goals and constraints

6. Undertake scenario impact analysis.

1. Define a framework and criteria for sustainability

2. Describe the current situation in relation to that framework

3. Envisage a future sustainable situation

4. Find strategies for sustainability

1. Strategic problem orientation

2. Develop sustainable future vision

3. Set out alternative solutions

4. Explore options and identify bottlenecks

5. Select among options and set up action plans

6. Set up co–operation agreements

7. Implement research agenda

Key assumptions

• Criteria   for   social   and   environmental   desirability   are   set   externally   to   the   analysis

• Goal-oriented

• Policy-oriented

• Design-oriented

• System   oriented

• Decreasing   resource   usage

• Diminishing   emissions

• Safeguarding   biodiversity   and   ecosystems  

• Fair   and   efficient   usage   of   resources   in   line   with   the   equity   principle

• Sustainable   future   need fulfilment

• Factor   20

• Time   horizon   of   40-50 years

• Co-evolution   of   technology   and   society

• Stakeholder   participation

• Focus   on   realising   follow-up

Examples of methods

• Social impact analysis

• Economic   impact   analysis

• Environmental   analysis

• Scenario   construction  approaches

• System   analysis   and modelling

• Material   flow   analysis   and   modelling

• Creativity   techniques

• Strategy   development

• Employee   involvement

• Employee   training

• Stakeholder   analysis

• Stakeholder   workshops

• Problem   analysis

• External   communication

• Technology   analysis

• Construction   of   future   visions

• System   design   and   analysis