Net load forecasting using different aggregation levels

Energy Informatics

Table 6 CRPS calculated on the test set for the different probabilistic forecasting strategies

Strategy	Quantity	Complex model	Simple model
Aggregated	Net load	2.676	2.987
Partially aggregated	Supply	1.953	2.053
	Demand	0.751	0.794
	Net load	2.130***	2.226***
Disaggregated	Offshore wind	0.602	0.657
	Onshore wind	1.810	1.911
	Solar	0.343	0.379
	Run of river	0.048	0.045
	Demand	0.751	0.794
	Net load	2.203	2.363

The best performing strategy is highlighted in bold. Significance levels are based on the DM test and show the significance between the two best performing forecasting strategies for the same forecasting model
Significance levels ***\(\alpha =0.001\), **\(\alpha =0.01\), *\(\alpha =0.1\)