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Table 6 CRPS calculated on the test set for the different probabilistic forecasting strategies

From: Net load forecasting using different aggregation levels

Strategy Quantity Complex model Simple model
Aggregated Net load 2.676 2.987
Partially aggregated Supply 1.953 2.053
Demand 0.751 0.794
Net load 2.130*** 2.226***
Disaggregated Offshore wind 0.602 0.657
Onshore wind 1.810 1.911
Solar 0.343 0.379
Run of river 0.048 0.045
Demand 0.751 0.794
Net load 2.203 2.363
  1. The best performing strategy is highlighted in bold. Significance levels are based on the DM test and show the significance between the two best performing forecasting strategies for the same forecasting model
  2. Significance levels ***\(\alpha =0.001\), **\(\alpha =0.01\), *\(\alpha =0.1\)