Net load forecasting using different aggregation levels

Energy Informatics

Table 5 RMSE calculated on the test set for the different deterministic forecasting strategies

Strategy	Quantity	Complex model	Simple model
Aggregated	Net load	5.068	5.448
Partially aggregated	Supply	3.744	3.790
	Demand	1.408	1.558
	Net load	4.018**	4.132***
Disaggregated	Offshore wind	1.186	1.281
	Onshore wind	3.508	3.764
	Solar	1.095	1.189
	Run of river	0.089	0.100
	Demand	1.408	1.558
	Net load	4.107	4.481

The best performing strategy is highlighted in bold. Significance levels are based on the DM test and show the significance between the two best performing forecasting strategies for the same forecasting model
Significance levels ***\(\alpha =0.001\), **\(\alpha =0.01\), *\(\alpha =0.1\)