Analysis and forecasting of crude oil price based on the variable selection-LSTM integrated model

Lu, Quanying; Sun, Shaolong; Duan, Hongbo; Wang, Shouyang

doi:10.1186/s42162-021-00166-4

Energy Informatics

Table 1 Initially selected feature variables and their explanations

From: Analysis and forecasting of crude oil price based on the variable selection-LSTM integrated model

First class index	Second class index	Variables	Units	Symbols	Data Source
Crude oil price	/	WTI Spot Price	Dollars per Barrel	Y	EIA
Supply	Production	Crude Oil Production, Total OPEC	Thousand Barrels per Day	X₁	EIA
		Crude Oil Production, Total Non-OPEC	Thousand Barrels per Day	X₂	EIA
		Crude Oil Production, World	Thousand Barrels per Day	X₃	EIA
	Consumption structure and replacement cost	Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price	Dollars per Million Btu	X₄	EIA
	Consumption structure and replacement cost	U.S. tight oil production	million bbl per day	X₅	EIA
Demand	Developed country	Petroleum Consumption, Total OECD	Thousand Barrels per Day	X₆	EIA
	Developing country	China oil import	Million tons	X₇	Wind database
	Global economic development	Fed fund effective	/	X₈	FRB
		Kilian Global economic index	/	X₉	Website of http://www-203personal.umich.edu/lkilian/
		US CPI index:seasonally adjusted	1982–84 = 100	X₁₀	Wind database
		US: CPI: energy: seasonally adjusted	1982–84 = 100	X₁₁	Wind database
		US: PPI: seasonally adjusted	1982 = 100	X₁₂	Wind database
		US:PPI: energy: seasonally adjusted	1982 = 100	X₁₃	Wind database
		EU 28 Countries: PPI	2015 = 100	X₁₄	Wind database
		US PMI index	/	X₁₅	Wind database
Inventory	OECD	Petroleum inventory, Total OECD	Million Barrels	X₁₆	EIA
	U.S.	Crude Oil inventory, Total	Million Barrels	X₁₇	EIA
		Crude Oil inventory, SPR	Million Barrels	X₁₈	EIA
		Crude Oil inventory, Non-SPR	Million Barrels	X₁₉	EIA
Speculation		Crude oil non-commercial net long ratio	%	X₂₀	CFCT
Monetary Market		Real dollar index: generalized	197,303 = 100	X₂₁	The federal reserve
Monetary Market		The exchange rate of euro against US dollar		X₂₂	The federal reserve
Stock market		S&P 500 index		X₂₃	Wind database
		Dow Jones Industrial Index		X₂₄	Wind database
		NASDAQ index		X₂₅	Wind database
Commodity market		COMEX: Gold: Future closing price	Dollar/ounce	X₂₆	Wind database
Commodity market		LME: Copper: Future closing price	Dollar /tone	X₂₇	Wind database
Technology Indicators	price spread	WTI-Brent spot price spread		X₂₈	EIA
		WTI crack spread: actual value		X₂₉	EIA
		Brent crack spread: actual value		X₃₀	EIA

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