Fig. 4

RMSE relative to the error obtained with SLP when predicting load aggregations of different size. Boxplots and violin plots represent the variation of the obtained error. The boxplot notch denotes the confidence interval (p-value 0.05). Violins depict a kernel density estimate of the error distribution (Hintze and Nelson 1998). Absolute error values are denoted in Table 3. All models had a substantial variation due to the random weight initializations and none was consistently better for all aggregations. Only for the biggest load (400 homes) was MIMO-MLP significantly more accurate than the SLP forecast