DE/AT →NL | NL →DE/AT | DE/AT →BE | BE →DE/AT | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average MAXBEX [MW] | 3 020 | 2 340 | 3 182 | 3 026 | ||||
norm. RMSD random [%] | 53.8 | 44.8 | 44.4 | 44.8 | ||||
norm. RMSD shuffle [%] | 50.0 | 48.1 | 36.9 | 44.8 | ||||
Forecast method | CF | NARX | CF | NARX | CF | NARX | CF | NARX |
norm. RMSD 1 hour lag [%] | 16.6 | 15.6 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 11.9 |
norm. RMSD 2 hour lag [%] | 22.1 | 19.4 | 20.5 | 18.9 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 17.9 | 17.4 |
norm. RMSD 3 hour lag [%] | 25.6 | 21.1 | 24.9 | 22.1 | 18.9 | 14.9 | 22.6 | 21.3 |
⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
norm. RMSD 10 hour lag [%] | 38.0 | 24.7 | 39.8 | 29.9 | 28.1 | 18.9 | 32.9 | 28.8 |
norm. RMSD 11 hour lag [%] | 38.5 | 24.7 | 40.8 | 30.2 | 28.3 | 18.9 | 33.0 | 29.1 |
norm. RMSD 12 hour lag [%] | 39.1 | 24.7 | 41.8 | 30.5 | 28.7 | 18.9 | 33.6 | 29.6 |
DE/AT →FR | FR →DE/AT | NL →BE | BE →NL | |||||
Average MAXBEX [MW] | 3 733 | 4 102 | 2 130 | 3 219 | ||||
norm. RMSD random [%] | 62.4 | 42.0 | 40.6 | 39.6 | ||||
norm. RMSD shuffle [%] | 62.6 | 31.9 | 30.5 | 34.5 | ||||
Forecast method | CF | NARX | CF | NARX | CF | NARX | CF | NARX |
norm. RMSD 1 hour lag [%] | 17.2 | 16.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 11.0 |
norm. RMSD 2 hour lag [%] | 26.3 | 23.4 | 15.7 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 16.0 | 15.2 |
norm. RMSD 3 hour lag [%] | 32.9 | 27.2 | 18.2 | 17.5 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 19.1 | 17.8 |
⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
norm. RMSD 10 hour lag [%] | 50.0 | 34.4 | 24.0 | 20.9 | 22.6 | 17.5 | 26.7 | 23.5 |
norm. RMSD 11 hour lag [%] | 49.9 | 34.3 | 24.3 | 21.2 | 22.9 | 17.6 | 27.2 | 23.9 |
norm. RMSD 12 hour lag [%] | 50.1 | 34.2 | 25.0 | 21.5 | 23.3 | 17.8 | 27.7 | 24.3 |
NL →FR | FR →NL | BE →FR | FR →BE | |||||
Average MAXBEX [MW] | 2 006 | 3 536 | 2 475 | 4 010 | ||||
norm. RMSD random [%] | 69.6 | 40.7 | 49.4 | 28.6 | ||||
norm. RMSD shuffle [%] | 50.8 | 43.0 | 44.7 | 22.7 | ||||
Forecast method | CF | NARX | CF | NARX | CF | NARX | CF | NARX |
norm. RMSD 1 hour lag [%] | 13.1 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 8.0 |
norm. RMSD 2 hour lag [%] | 20.0 | 18.0 | 18.7 | 16.6 | 18.4 | 15.6 | 11.8 | 11.0 |
norm. RMSD 3 hour lag [%] | 25.8 | 21.9 | 21.4 | 18.2 | 23.8 | 19.0 | 14.2 | 12.7 |
⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ | ⋮ |
norm. RMSD 10 hour lag [%] | 41.9 | 28.6 | 29.1 | 21.6 | 35.9 | 25.7 | 18.2 | 14.6 |
norm. RMSD 11 hour lag [%] | 42.5 | 28.7 | 29.6 | 21.7 | 36.0 | 25.8 | 18.3 | 14.6 |
norm. RMSD 12 hour lag [%] | 43.2 | 28.8 | 30.3 | 21.8 | 36.4 | 26.1 | 18.7 | 14.7 |